Texas is ground zero for bare-knuckle win-at-all-costs partisanship. One of the fastest growing states in the nation, Texas moved out of the Solid South during the mid 1970s to become competitive for both parties. Following the 1994 midterm elections, Texas became the conservative Republican heartland, and that reputation only increased following Texas governor George W. Bush’s successful Presidential bid. Both Texas Democrats and Republicans sought to marginalize each other through creative and unethical redistricting, and there is an awful lot of bad blood between the two parties. It is little surprise that central Texas will experience one of the most competitive congressional elections in the already very competitive 2010 midterms. Waco Democrat Chet Edwards is attempting to stave off a bruising challenge from College Station oil executive Bill Flores. Edward’s district, Texas’ 17^th, is one of the most Republican districts in the nation. Not only did George W. Bush receive more than 70% of the 2004 vote, the 17^th is actually home to Bush’s Crawford Ranch. Edwards is the consummate political survivor, but the environment might be too hostile for even this conservative Texas Democrat.

Edwards is something of a political anomaly. Considering his districts’ blood-red tilt, Edwards is a comparatively liberal Representative. Republican Members of Congress from comparatively Republican districts, such as Texas’ 1^st and 19^th, are far more conservative. Edwards voted for the Stimulus act, voted against the Bush tax cuts, and once received an F from the NRA. Edwards also voted against banning gay marriage in Washington DC, an unusual position to take given that his political base, Waco, Texas, is unofficially nicknamed the “Buckle of the Bible Belt.”Under most normal circumstances, Edwards should have been turfed out of his district in the 1990s, let alone after the now-infamous 2003 redistricting. In fact, Edwards won his first re-election bid in his new district by less than 4%, even after he was endorsed by nearly every major newspaper within his district. Edwards’ strength stems from two incredibly important sources; his is a die-hard advocate for veterans rights and he has made “all politics is local” his personal mantra.

Despite the 17th’s overpowering conservative lean, Edwards has carved out a special niche as American veteran’s strongest defender. Edwards currently chairs the Appropriations Subcommittee on Veterans Affairs and is an integral member of the Budget committee. After the Republicans forced most of the senior Democrats into retirement, Edwards became the most powerful Texas Democrat, and used his powerful influence to fight for Veterans rights. Edwards is such a devoted veterans advocate that even fairly conservative veterans rights organizations endorsed his re-election bids. Edwards’ stalwart veterans advocacy, as well as his near-constant fights to increase funding for nearby Ft. Hood Army base, has endeared him to many other-wise conservative Texas voters. Edwards’ veterans advocacy aside, he could conceivably win re-election purely based on constituent services. Despite representing only 40% of his pre-2003 territory, Edwards has ingratiated himself with his new constituents. Edwards’ chief strategy is to take care of his district by fighting for university grants and development projects and portray his opponents as out-of-touch outsiders unconcerned with the 17th’s woes. Thus far, the strategy is quite successful and Edwards enjoys a nearly 60% approval rate, despite a nearly 66% disapproval rate for most national Democrats.

Although Edwards is very personally popular, he may have used up his nine lives. Although he soundly defeated an underwhelming Republican in 2006, Edwards win re-election only by 5% in 2008. Edwards’ district is ground-zero for anti-Obama Tea Party activism, and the Democrats are extremely unpopular within the district. Speaker Nancy Pelosi did not help matters when she publicly suggested that Congressman Edwards would make an excellent Vice President, and seriously pressured Obama to make Edwards his running mate. Although Edwards was not selected, the Obama administration offered Edwards a cabinet position as Secretary for Veterans Affairs. Edwards declined the offer, citing greater ability to help veterans as an Appropriations chairman, but it has become increasingly difficult to distance himself from the Obama administration. More ominously, Edwards has drawn a much more serious challenger than usual. Bill Flores, a former oil executive from Houston, is running a solid campaign and has the capacity to self-fund raise. Flores has already reserved $500,000 of his own money to defeat Edwards and has released an internal poll giving Flores a 53-41 lead over Chet Edwards. If Flores wants to be successful, he will need to tie Edwards to Obama or successfully paint Edwards as a rubber stamp for the deeply unpopular Nancy Pelosi.

The defining issue in Edwards’ election might not be the economy or social issues, but something much more down-to-earth. Oddly enough, college football may decide Edwards’ political fate. Edwards, who represents both Texas A&M and Baylor University, both members of the Big 12 college football conference. In early 2010, the college football community was filled with rumors that the Big 12 would dissolve and the member schools would be parceled out to other conferences. Baylor University was particularly against the move, as it would have cost the university a huge amount of money and potentially 1,600 employees. Edwards used his considerable influence to help keep the Big 12 together, while Flores decried Edwards’ involvement as “inappropriate.” Edwards has also attacked Flores for not supporting federal loans within the district, forcing Flores to backtrack and re-articulate his position on federal spending. The race is nearly universally considered to be a tossup, though Edwards’ $2.5 million war chest might tip the balance in his favor. If Edwards wants to win, he must emphasize his service to the 17^th district and paint himself as a tireless advocate for veterans and central Texans. Otherwise, Obama’s scorching unpopularity will drag this hardened politician into an ignoble defeat.