Florida’s 2010 Senate race may be the most interesting in recent memory. The Senate race has been a political free-for-all for the past several months, and what was once a solid Republican retention transformed into a three-part fight over the much-coveted seat. The three contestants in this knife-fight are struggling for their political lives, and each has a great deal to win or lose come November. Republican Marco Rubio is desperately trying to regain his momentum, while Democrat Kendrick Meek is attempting to stave off a bruising primary challenge and to remain competitive in the general election. Finally, governor Charlie Crist, practically banished from his own Republican Party, is pursuing the practically impossible; Crist is attempting to run as an independent and win election in a large state. Polling for the election is all over the map, but it is pretty clear that this election will have profound national consequences.

When Senator Mel Martinez announced his retirement last December, both parties eagerly licked their chops. Florida is a very large and expensive state, but holding statewide offices greatly increase a party’s political power. The election seemed settled when the Republican governor Charlie Crist entered the election, bringing with him a vast amount of money and nearly universal name recognition. Crist, a moderate in a somewhat conservative state, supported President Obama’s economic stimulus plan, and managed to alienate many conservatives within the state. Marco Rubio, a little-known but charismatic former Speaker of the Florida House, saw an opening and challenged Crist for the Republican nomination. Rubio charged that Crist was insufficiently conservative , and began an active tour to court conservative voters and donors inside Florida. Conservative Republican voters coalesced around Rubio, and he eventually overcame Crist’s mammoth polling leads. Rubio turned a 53% polling deficit into a 23% polling advantage. Rubio became the favorite in the Senate race after Democrat Kendrick Meek’s poor showing in head-to-head polls. Running with the nearly unanimous support of conservative organizations, Rubio looked like a bright new face for the conservative Republican party and would become one of the first Tea Party activist elected to the Senate.

Crist, perhaps putting his ego ahead of his party, threw a rather large wrench into Rubio’s plans by dropping out of the Republican primary and running as an independent. After nearly all of the national Republicans abandoned the sinking Crist, the much-maligned governor announced that he would run without party affiliation. Crist doubtless did not want his ambitious political career cut short by an upstart conservative. Crist’s campaign is focused on avoiding the partisan gridlock and Crist paints a picture of himself as a leader who can stand up the the extremists on both parties. He uses the oddly Marxist-sounding “People’s Campaign,” and is already draining a considerable amount of support from Democrat Kendrick Meek. Current polling puts Crist ahead of either Rubio or Meek, and Crist has more money than both candidates combined. Crist’s indie bid, though somewhat self-centered, probably saved his political career.

Kendrick Meek, the hapless Democrat in the Senate race, simply can’t catch a break. Never polling above 27% of the vote, both Meek’s fundraising and his vote percentage dried up after Crist announced his independent candidacy. Meek never really got any traction and has not released any TV advertisements. Meek’s problems grew even worse after billionaire Jeff Greene entered the Democratic primary. Greene, who made billions off of credit default swaps and somewhat shady rental properties, is worth nearly $1.5 billion, and has already plastered Florida’s TV networks with anti-Meek attack ads. Greene’s investments have already paid off; he and Meek are virtually tied in the most recent Democratic primary polls. The primary has already turned ugly, with both parties accusing each other of fraud and corruption in party-sponsored debates.

For all of it’s eccentricities, the 2010 Florida election is quite serious. The election should be seen as a battle for the soul of the Republican Party, and it will be most interesting to see whether the conservative/Tea Party side (represented by Rubio) or the more moderate side (represented by Crist) prevails in November. Oddly enough, Crist has not openly stated where he would caucus if he won the Senate race, and could be contemplating caucusing with the Democrats. Such a move would be understandable; Crist was more-or-less cast out by the Republican Party and a majority of Crist’s backers want him to caucus with the Democrats. Caucusing with the Democrats is an even friendlier option if the odious Jeff Greene wins the Democratic Primary and Democratic voters begin migrating en masse to the Crist campaign. Should Crist win the Senate election and caucus with the Democrats, despite being politically dead on arrival mere months ago, it could send a strong rebuke to the conservative Republicans. A Crist victory would indicate that pursuing ideological purity ahead of all other factors is not a particularly good way of winning back both Chambers of Congress. Although polling wavers between a Crist/Rubio lead, one thing is certain; the Florida Senate race is sure to be a wild ride.